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Whitepapers

Leading innovation in pipeline risk assessment and pipeline integrity management

Creating impactful change in pipeline integrity management requires sharing ideas and demonstrating success rates. JANA is active in the oil and gas industry as a participant in associations and standard development and in sharing our findings. Through both independent and collaborative efforts, we have produced and presented whitepapers on various aspects of modern risk modeling and the Mechanistic-Probabilistic (MP) model we use in our solutions. 

Explore the future of pipeline forecasting and risk analysis:

 

Pipeline Risk Modeling – How Much Data do I Need?

There is more and more discussion in distribution and transmission pipeline risk modeling of quantitative risk modeling approaches. The most common concern expressed by those examining quantitative modelling approaches is having enough data to feed these models, with a common assumption that the data needs are well beyond the currently available asset data. This often results in adopting softer scoring or index modeling approaches as data collection projects are implemented. This paper demonstrates that, while data is certainly a key component of driving to accuracy and specificity in any modelling approach, the focus on data often leads to the adoption of risk modelling approaches that ignore fundamental risk modelling requirements, leading to completely fallacious model outputs.

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A Framework For Pipeline And Storage Facilities Risk Modeling

“Doing nothing is not as bad as things can get for risk management. The worst thing to di is to adopt a soft scoring method or an unproven but seemingly sophisticated method (what some have called “crackpot rigor”) and act on it with confidence.”
- Douglas W. Hubbard, The Failure or Risk Management

For Risk Assessments to deliver what is needed to truly improve the Integrity Management of gas system assets, the risk modeling methodology must be properly structured. The requirements for a functional risk modeling structure are driven by the unique nature of gas system assets and the objectives of the Integrity Management process. JANA has developed a risk model structure and implementation process that ensures that the resulting Risk Assessments provide functional effective inputs into the overall Integrity Management process. Further, this methodology allows for the direct comparison of risk across disparate gas system assets so that risk reduction actions can be prioritized so as to optimally reduce risk across all company assets. 

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A Risk Based Approach To Prioritizing Aldyl Piping

Managing aging pipeline infrastructure is an important part of overall pipeline risk management. The critical risk management questions for an aging infrastructure are: how quickly should replacement occur and what parts of the system should be prioritized for replacement. To answer these questions it is necessary to characterize the expected future performance of the pipeline and the more accurately this is done the better risk can be managed. This paper examines the use of mechanistic-probability models for prioritizing Aldyl piping replacements in gas distribution systems based on segment by segment leak rate forecasts tied to the specific pipe segment materials and operating conditions. The general modeling approach is reviewed and the resulting models are tested for predictive capability versus actual field leak rates. The results show that mechanistic-probability models can accurately predict leak rates across all the generations of Aldyl piping materials under a broad range of end-use operating conditions, providing the utility operator with a powerful tool to determine required replacement levels to achieve risk targets, optimize replacement programs and optimize leak survey plans.

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AM Approach To Long Term Reliability

New and formal approaches to Asset Management (AM), such as the PAS-55 and ISO 55000 Asset Management standards have been developed over the past decade. These AM standards can be applied to pipelines and cover all stages of a pipeline's lifecycle - acquisition, operation, maintenance and renewal/disposal and provide guidance and a requirements checklist of good practices in physical asset management. These AM standards include a significant focus on the acquisition phase of an asset as the future system operating capabilities, reliability and risk profile of new or replacement pipelines are largely set in this phase for buried pipelines by the choice of products and the installation practices used in construction. As such, this is a particularly critical phase of a pipeline’s lifecycle. Asset Management plans need to, therefore, ensure proper focus on the pipeline acquisition phase to improve long term system risk profile. Utilities have experienced significant maintenance/replaces costs associated with premature failure of pipe and components. These are not easy to combat after the fact or by employing standard methods. A new approach is needed for the industry; this approach is the PAS-55/ISO 55000 compliant JANAcquire55™ process. The implementation of this process for the acquisition phase of a product lifecycle will help utilities to eliminate early pipeline failures and to extend the life of new pipelines past the point of relevance to today’s stakeholders. The process is outlined and an example presented.

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Bimodal PE’s Contribution to the Life Expectancy Extension

Material selection plays a critical role in the integrity of gas distribution pipelines. This paper examines the concept of robustness in gas distribution pipelines and how the selection of materials with high resistance to failure can increase pipeline integrity management and extend the lifetime of a pipeline. The common failure modes in plastic piping systems in gas distribution related to material performance are examined and how bimodal MDPE and HDPE pipe materials address these failure modes is explored. Bimodal PE piping materials are seen to have very high levels of resistance to the primary exposures that lead to failure in PE gas piping systems, providing for high robustness in gas distribution pipelines.

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Characterizing Consequences of Pipeline Incidents

Understanding the potential consequence of pipeline incidents is a critical component of pipeline risk management. By their very nature, these consequence are probabilistic -- for any given potential incident, there is a range of the potential severity of the consequences that can arise that depends on both deterministic (e.g. line pressure, pipe size, etc.) and variable factors (e.g. how quickly is the leak located, is there an ignition source present at the time of the leak, etc.) that results in a distribution of potential outcomes with different likelihoods or probabilities. As a first step in understanding and modeling pipeline consequences, it is necessary to characterize the nature of this distribution -- what is the potential range of consequences and their relative likelihoods? In this paper, the form of the distribution of consequences arising from pipeline incidents is examined and it is seen, in a variety of industries (gas distribution pipelines, gas transmission pipelines, hazardous liquid pipelines and gas gathering pipelines), to follow a Power Law or Pareto type distribution. This behavior has specific implications for both modeling and managing pipeline risks, particularity for the assessment and management of low probability-high consequence events.

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Inspection of Polyethylene Fusions and Electrofusions

For buried gas distribution pipelines, the majority of the future risk profile is set when the pipelines are installed. In effective Pipeline Safety and Asset Management Systems, then, it is critical to ensure the integrity of new pipeline installations. With the excellent projected longevity of current generation PE gas piping, a key component of ensuring future pipeline integrity management must be centered on ensuring the integrity of the joining techniques. A novel approach is presented for non-destructive evaluation of fusion joints. The technology is based on ultrasound but manages to be more effective than previous ultrasonic methods due to a unique approach to analyzing the sound waves. The approach is described and case studies involving the application of the technique to electrofusion joints are presented. The technology is seen to be highly effective in identifying fusion abnormalities.

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JANA Executive Brief - Storage Risk Modeling

“Doing nothing is not as bad as things can get for risk management. The worst thing to do is to adopt a soft scoring method or an unproven but seemingly sophisticated method (what some have called “crackpot rigor”) and act on it with confidence.”
- Douglas W. Hubbard, The Failure or Risk Management

Implementation of a risk-based approach to Integrity Management for gas Storage Systems is being considered by many operators. JANA has developed Fully Quantitative risk approaches to Transmission and Distribution Pipeline Integrity Management programs over the past decade. The learnings from these applications can be leveraged as as a similar approach is brought to bear on Storage Systems. This Executive Brief outlines key elements to the successful application of Fully Quantitative risk approaches to gas reservoirs and associated wells. 

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Managing Low Probability - High Consequence Pipeline Risk

Understanding the potential consequence of pipeline incidents is a critical component of pipeline risk management. By their very nature, these consequence are probabilistic -- for any given potential incident, there is a range of the potential severity of the consequences that can arise. In this paper, the form of the distribution of consequences arising from pipeline incidents is examined and it is seen, in a variety of industries (gas distribution pipelines, gas transmission pipelines, hazardous liquid pipelines and gas gathering pipelines), to follow a power law or Pareto type distribution. This behavior has specific implications for both modeling and managing pipeline risk, particularly for the assessment and management of low probability-high consequence events. Further, the paper explores the characterization of standard risk and low probability-high consequence by risk quadrants and discusses approaches to manage each. Specifically for non-standard risk, an approach to using these measures to reduce the risk by building event tress to the consequence lines is presented. These event trees would be supported by mechanistic-probability modeling which would enable the capture of uncertainty and the expression of its multiplicative nature as the process flows along the event tree. In the end, an understanding of what is known and with what level of confidence and what is not known with any confidence and what risks are associated with each can be developed. Once this is completed, it will become clearer as to where the true risks lie in the pipeline in terms of low-frequency high-consequence events and what actions can be taken to begin to mitigate or eliminate them. In this way, the linear Power Law curve will be 'bent' and a significant reduction in the likelihood of a high consequence vent will be achieved. This, coupled with activities in Quadrants I and II, will result in a sustainable risk profile for the pipeline over the long term. 

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Managing Risk in Pipeline Installations

Utilities continue to experience failures in recently installed piping systems. Not only do these failures increase utility risk, they also result in significant maintenance/replacement costs associated with the premature failure of a pipeline. These risks are not easy to combat after the fact or by employing standard methods.

New and formal approaches to Asset Management (AM) and Pipeline Safety Management Systems (PSMS) – such as the ISO 55000 series of Asset Management standards (“ISO 55000”) and API RP 1173 for Pipeline Safety Management – have been developed and are being adopted or considered by gas utilities. ISO 55000 was developed for all asset intensive industries and provides a general framework for an overall Asset Management system. API RP 1173 also provides a framework for asset management that is consistent with ISO 55000, yet it is focused specifically on pipelines. Both frameworks cover all stages of a pipeline's lifecycle-acquisition, operation, maintenance and renewal/disposal-and provide guidance and a requirements checklist of good practices in physical asset management. Both also include a focus on the “acquisition” phase of an asset, where systems are designed and, in the case of gas distribution, pipelines are installed and inspected. This phase is a particularly critical phase of a pipeline’s lifecycle. As such, Asset Management plans need to ensure proper focus on the acquisition phase to improve the long-term system risk profile of a pipeline.

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Modeling Cross Bore Risk

As the reliability and risk profile of new or replacement pipelines is largely set for buried pipelines by the choice of products and the installation practices used in construction, a new approach is needed for the industry; this approach is the API 1173/ISO 55000 compliant JANAcquire55™ process. The implementation of this process for the acquisition phase of a product lifecycle will help utilities eliminate early pipeline failures and extend the life of new pipelines past the point of relevance to today’s stakeholders. The process is outlined and an example presented.

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IPC2016-64512

When major pipeline incidents occur there is always a question as to how applicable the learnings from that incident are across the industry. To address this question for the San Bruno pipeline failure in 2010, an analysis of historical transmission pipeline industry events was conducted to determine if San Bruno was consistent with past industry performance or whether it was an outlier event.  This paper draws on Power Law analysis to generate a characteristic curve of past transmission pipeline accidents in the US. Power Law, or Pareto, behavior has been observed for a wide variety of phenomenon, such as fire damage, earthquake damage and terrorist attacks. The size of these events is seen to follow not the typical normal distribution but the Power Law distribution, where low probability – high consequence (LPHC) events play a more significant role in the overall risk picture. Analysis shows that the consequences of pipeline incidents in a variety of pipeline industries (gas distribution, gas transmission, gas gathering and hazardous liquid pipelines) are seen to exhibit Power Law behavior. The Power Law model is seen to capture the distribution of the size of consequences from pipeline incidents and defines the relationship between the size of an incident and its frequency. Through characterization of these distributions, it is possible to project the likelihood or expected frequency of events of a given magnitude and to assess if a given incident fits within historical industry patterns; i.e. whether the incident is consistent with past observations or is an outlier.

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Qualification Program for Electrofusion Fittings

Ensuring the integrity of new installations is a critical component of an overall pipeline safety and integrity management system. A methodology has been developed for the acquisition phase of the pipeline lifecycle that identifies all threats, the primary mitigations that can be applied to those threats and the detailed components that need to be included in the mitigations to ensure effectiveness. An example is provided outlining how the methodology can be applied to the development of a comprehensive qualification program for electrofusion fittings.

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White Paper - API 1173 and ISO 55001 Compliant AM Systems

A comparison has been made between the requirements of API 1173 Pipeline Safety Management Systems and the requirements of ISO 55001 Asset Management - Management systems - Requirements to provide guidance to pipeline operators in structuring a program that complies with both documents. 

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Read More of JANA’s research papers on a variety of topics.

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Mechanistic Probabilistic Modeling

You can call it MP Modeling. We call it the better approach to modeling risk for your pipeline integrity.

See What It’s All About

Gas Transmission

  • Intelligent and scalable risk management
  • Exceed regulations with best-in-class compliance
  • Prioritize tasks in your asset management
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Gas Distribution

  • Ensure continuity of service through prevention
  • Achieve optimal compliance more efficiently
  • Resolve issues and meet strategic goals
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